Race strategy
Hold effort. Let the course change the pace.
Athens is modelled segment by segment. The 3:45 goal is preserved only as a simulation anchor — not as a validated prediction.
3:45:00goal simulation
Race principle
Simulation onlyHold effort across hills, avoid banking time early, and treat downhill speed as controlled rather than free pace.
Course execution
18 decisions, not one pace.
01
0.0 → 9.6 kmFlat · -0.16%
5:17/kmControlled Start No Banking
02
9.6 → 11.8 kmUphill · 1.31%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
03
11.8 → 13.8 kmFlat · 0.45%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
04
13.8 → 14.9 kmUphill · 0.89%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
05
14.9 → 16.3 kmFlat · -0.18%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
06
16.3 → 17.6 kmDownhill · -1.18%
5:09/kmControlled Descent No Overstride
07
17.6 → 18.1 kmFlat · 0.00%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
08
18.1 → 19.4 kmUphill · 1.13%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
09
19.4 → 21.0 kmStrong Uphill · 2.19%
5:41/kmConserve On Strong Climb
10
21.0 → 23.2 kmUphill · 1.26%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
11
23.2 → 24.5 kmStrong Uphill · 2.20%
5:41/kmConserve On Strong Climb
12
24.5 → 27.0 kmUphill · 1.55%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
13
27.0 → 28.0 kmFlat · 0.75%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
14
28.0 → 30.6 kmUphill · 1.17%
5:29/kmAllow Pace Loss Hold Effort
15
30.6 → 31.0 kmFlat · -0.04%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
16
31.0 → 34.6 kmDownhill · -1.02%
5:09/kmLate Race Controlled Descent
17
34.6 → 36.4 kmFlat · -0.61%
5:17/kmSteady Effort
18
36.4 → 42.2 kmDownhill · -1.52%
5:09/kmLate Race Controlled Descent
Athlete guard
No time banking.
High aerobic and long-run readiness gaps stop the strategy from assuming an aggressive early start or a guaranteed late-race acceleration.
See the known gaps →What is not known
Terrain capability remains unmeasured.
The current uphill/downhill deltas are transparent engineering coefficients. They are not personalized race prescriptions until real terrain evidence exists.
See course confidence →Race Strategy v0 · Goal-anchored simulation · Numeric paces are not authorized for real-athlete use.